You determine Team C should be -13, but the bookies have it as -14. Team F. You still feel Team A should be -2 1/2, so instead you bet on Team A! You strongly feel they will win the game with more points than what the bookies are giving, so it’s a strong bet.
Good answer Paul. You need to do the research of the teams, the conditions, the coaches, the players….SO MUCH.
Same example, but this time Team A is -1 1/2 from the bookies. Why??? Because they lack discipline. Let me explain a little more clearly.
First of all, you’ve got to know that only around 1% of folks who gamble on sports do so profitably. Some people CAN do this well, but they STILL lose money. You figure Team E should be -6, but the bookies have it listed at -12!!! YOU KNOW YOU’RE RIGHT!!! You know there is something about this team that the bookies didn’t consider. It is HIGHLY unlikely that YOU will be able to beat it, however.
Guess what? It turns out you’re right! The running back doesn’t play and the line plummets to -6 just like you thought! But you already got your bet in at the bookies for -12! You’re feeling fantastic, and you bet 75% of your bankroll because you had this “can’t lose” wager!!!
Another example. The lines show Team A -3 1/2. Bottom line, sports betting CAN be beaten. He said, “secret is to bet when you know the odds are generous”.
Team E vs. 99% of the people who bet on sports either just go with their “gut”, or go with their favorite team, OR THEY FOOL THEMSELVES! They fool themselves into thinking that they actually CAN figure out lines better than the bookies, but in reality they can’t.
One more VERY important point. *****
This is what profitable betting is all about in sports. Perhaps you’ve got some inside information that the star running back is hurt and won’t play!
What do you do?!?!? YOU POUNCE on this game! You call it a “LOCK”. But in your research of the game, you strongly believe Team A should only be -2 1/2. If the line were -10 or -11, then you’d put some money on Team C.
ANY TEAM can win or lose on ANY given day. Team B. Here’s one final example to illustrate that point:
If you do your research and figure out that Team A should be -2 1/2, and the bookies are putting Team A at -2 1/2, then you DON’T PLAY THAT GAME! Even if the bookies have it at -2 or -3, it’s still not enough of a “FLAW” in the line to make betting on that game profitable.
In other words, you need to know when a sports line is FLAWED. If you ever believe in such a thing as a “lock”, you’ll go broke.
Here’s an example: An American football game with Team A vs. This time the line is so big, that you STILL might want to avoid playing this game! If the bookies had it at -15 or -16, then you might consider betting on Team D. Can sports be beaten? Yes, but just your asking this question tells me that it is HIGHLY unlikely that you will ever be one of these people.
Back to what Paul was talking about. Also American football. Teams C D are playing. So you bet on Team B since Team B is getting 1 more point than what they ought to be.
Then at the game, Team E rallies without the star running back and wins by 17 points! You just decimated your bankroll, even though your thinking was 100% correct!. You bet heavy on Team F +12 since there is NO WAY that team could possibly lose by 12 points!!! IT’S A LOCK!!!
OK – so this is WAY more than what you were looking for, I’m sure
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